BACK when I was a teenager, I remember playing a video game called Force 21. In it, China invades Kazakhstan in far distant future of 2015 to take its oil and gas to sustain its economy, and the Americans join with the Russians to fight them off.
Looking back at it now, the game had failed its predictions. China had not invaded Kazakhstan and Russia is not buddy-buddy with the US.
However, the recent instability in the former Soviet country has given me pause. For those not aware, riots and protests erupted in Kazakhstan two weeks ago, and now, there are rumors that the country’s elites are divided.
Almaty, the largest city in Kazakhstan, had its mayor’s office stormed and burned. Russian and Kazakh leaders are trying to contain the situation, but the cat is out of the bag at this point.
To give some context on what is happening in the region right now, we must remember that for years, since the fall of the USSR, Nursultan Nazarbayev ruled the country in one form or another. He stepped down in 2019, and was succeeded by Kassym Tokayev, but he still held the reins of power. Two weeks ago, that power was challenged by a combination of high gas prices and rioters.
So why is this important to you?
If Kazakhstan falls or enters a prolonged state of instability, it will affect both Russia and China, which in turn will affect the US and the of the rest world.
For China, an unstable Kazakhstan will disrupt its Belt and Road system and potentially agitate its Uighur minority. An unstable Kazakhstan will have negative economic effects on the People’s Republic of China (PRC), and given its own problems right now, it can’t afford to have those.
For Russia, Kazakhstan is home to Bakainur Cosmodrome, a Soviet-era space port, as well as a large amount of gas and oil. China would like to have that gas and oil, as does Russia. Further, Putin may have concerns that the problems in Kazakhstan will spread to his own backyard.
And that’s not even taking into consideration what the US and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) are thinking. I don’t expect the Kazakh situation will escalate beyond political instability, but given the wider global environment, I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes out of control./PN
