UKRAINE and Taiwan. These are two potential hotspots for this year, if not the decade.
In a worst case scenario, Russia will invade Ukraine, and China will invade Taiwan, perhaps simultaneously, consequently triggering World War 3.
So far, though, both Russia and China have given mixed messages with regards to what they will do.
Xi, in particular, has made some statements that could be interpreted that China is not actually ready to attack Taiwan. But even in this were true, and the threat of war becomes political threats and propaganda, there is still the fact that both countries’ armies are poised at their intended targets.
Conventional Internal Relations thinks the US is headed for a new cold war, only this time with the addition of China. Others, though, think that a hot war is possible, if a distant one at this time.
Right now, there are too many moving parts to make a prediction of one kind or another. COVID, Inflation, International Economic Woes and more are not making the situation more stable. Russia and China do want to grab Ukraine and Taiwan respectively, but of course, the United States is standing in their way. So they have to bide their time until they are in good positions to do so. This news coming out from these countries sound more like probes, gauging the limits of US power and policy rather than full scale attacks.
Further, the situation in Taiwan and Ukraine is the preview of the coming multipolar system, where the United States has to deal with China and Russia as peer or near peer competitors, and not as the uni-polar hegemon.
The belligerence of both countries can be interpreted as them trying to expand their respective spheres of influence, sensing that they will be in a good position to do so soon, but not quite yet.
In any case, the situation in Taiwan and Ukraine could herald many interesting things in the next few years./PN
