SEVERAL days ago, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated by an explosive device smuggled into his guesthouse.
The details are not important at this point. What is important is the outcome of that attack and whether or not it will lead to larger regional conflict.
Some analysts and commentators certainly think so, but it’s worth remembering the facts here.
First, Haniyeh was a Hamas member, not an Iranian official.
Second, high profile assassinations are nothing new in the region. For example, Iranian leader Qasem Soleimani was droned by then US President Donald Trump back in 2020, and contrary to the opinion of many, the region did not descend into larger war.
If Iran was unwilling to escalate over their own getting bumped off, I think they are less likely to do so over an outsider.
There is also the question of who will do the escalating. Iran can theoretically start it but who else will join in? Hezbollah? Egypt? Syria? These countries have their own problems, and though I have no doubt which side they will support, I just don’t see how they would heed the call of a wider regional war.
But it’s also very possible that the opposite could happen. There are many ways Iran could retaliate and no one can predict them all.
Furthermore, Haniyeh was assassinated at a time when the situation in the Middle East is tense, to say the least, and there’s no telling what kind of information the local leaders are looking at.
In any case, Haniyeh’s assassination will have consequences. Maybe those consequences will be serious, like a tit for tat assassination of an Israeli official, or maybe not. It all depends on how the Israeli-Hamas war turns out.
If the situation gets worse or if the conflict drags on without losing tempo, it’s possible that Haniyeh’s assassination will be the first of many escalations./PN
