PAKISTAN and India are planning to start another war. If so, this will officially mark the fifth such conflict in recent history.
What makes this different from the previous conflicts is that the global environment has changed since the last relatively minor affair in 1999. India has grown economically, and is the recipient of offshore manufacturing from China, while Pakistan has become a focal point for non-state actors in the area.
Whether or not Pakistan was responsible for the Pahalgam terrorist attack, India is convinced that they are, and are apparently willing to start a war over it. They have cut off the Indus’ water supply, and by the time of this article’s publishing, both sides may have already started operations.
So far, that seems to have been isolated to skirmishes along the border.
Looking at the numbers, India can easily crush Pakistan. It’s the same equation as Russia and Ukraine. The only way Pakistan could hold out is if China would support its war effort, but doing so may exacerbate the tensions in the region, and I doubt the China Communist Party wants to risk a hostile India while its Eastern region is becoming (more) hostile.
If there is a war, will it be a brief affair or something similar to what happened in Ukraine?
I can’t answer that. What really interests me is that this war could take place at a time of increasing international instability.
If the situation there escalates, it will suck in other regional players, including China and the United States. There is the very real chance that tactical nuclear weapons may be deployed, not to mention destabilize neighboring regions.
Let us not forget that Pakistan has tensions with Iran and Afghanistan, which in turn have issues with their other neighbors, while China is a major strategic ally.
India, on the other hand, is the most populous country in the world, and also has border problems with China.
Should Modi decide to buddy up to Trump, things could become very interesting in the sub-continent./PN
