LAST WEEK, Thailand and Cambodia were launching rockets at each other.
The situation is fluid and the conflict may change quickly. Maybe, the dispute will turn out like the India-Pakistani war earlier this year, and it becomes just another border conflict in 2025.
In the worst case scenario, we get a full scale war, and I expect the situation will be another flashpoint in the US-China rivalry. It could also potentially destabilize regional stability, but with so many other issues right now, a Thai-Cambodian war will be minor crisis.
It’s worth remembering that the conflict is nothing new. Territorial disputes between Thailand and Cambodia have existed around the Phu Makhuea Mountain for over a century, and the last time conflict happened was in early 2010s when fighting displaced civilians.
I expect a repeat of previous conflicts with a crescendo of violence followed a gradual stagnation phase. It’s a local issue that doesn’t affect the world, let alone other countries in the region, and as of the writing of this article, there is news that they are seeking a ceasefire.
The real importance of the conflict is that it harms cohesion in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), which is already in a fragmented state. When we should be leveraging regional unity to better negotiate our interests in the emerging global order, Southeast Asia seems to be fragmenting further.
The good news is that I don’t expect this conflict will escalate, nor are there major flashpoints that could push it past a certain threshold. Neither country, I believe, wants to be the next Russia-Ukraine, which is good for them and for the rest of the region.
I could be wrong, of course, but 2025 is shaping up to be a year where a lot of conflicts seem to be flaring up./PN
