THE ANCHORAGE Accords recently ended with some moderate optimism. Although US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin did not reach a ceasefire deal for Ukraine, reports say they have made some headway.
If Europe and Ukraine agree to the terms, then a ceasefire may appear soon.
But a ceasefire in Ukraine is more than just that. For one thing, it gives both Europe (and Russia) time to rebuild and rearm.
Further, it allows the United States time to build up its military capacity while diverting its assets to the Pacific.
For China, a ceasefire means that the US and its allies have fewer immediate problems in Europe, and can divert more of its attention in Asia.
Many US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization-aligned groups hope that the ceasefire will allow the US to separate Russia from its Chinese allies. I am not so sure of that, but they will almost certainly try. The current geopolitical mess has been brought about by years of foolish policies, and Trump alone cannot undo all that.
On the other hand, although China and Russia are nominally allies, those ties may not be as strong as presented. Russian influencers, for example, report that China is not only prolonging the war to keep the US occupied, they are also using it to economically squeeze the Russians who have few options because of Western sanctions.
I don’t know the veracity behind these claims, but news of the Russians putting tariffs on Chinese products seem to validate this.
In any case, the important point to remember here is that China and Russia’s alliance, though not as strong as both countries want it to be, is driven by a lot of inertia, and will not likely change soon. So if China faces problems, I expect that the Russians will send help, but that help will come at a steep cost, just like China’s help had cost Russia a lot.
Just as China saw the Ukraine war as something that it could take advantage of, the Russians will likely see the same thing should the situation here in Asia heats up./PN
