THE YEAR 2025 is pivotal for the world. It may not seem as such to individual countries, but the year marks a threshold of sort, one that could ripple for years to come.
For one, 2025 was marked by wars and the threat of wars. A few examples include Cambodia and Thailand, India and Pakistan, Israel and its neighbors, the United States bombing of Iran’s nuclear refining facilities, the US blockading Venezuela, military escalation in Asia and, of course, Ukraine and Russia. Rather than viewing these changes as distinct events, I view them as symptoms of a much larger trend, the erosion of the Old Rules-Based Order.
Many blame US President Donald Trump, thinking he is the catalyst, but he, much like most populists, are also symptoms of a global system that can no longer work, and overwhelmed by its own contradictions.
Offshoring Western manufacturing to China and expecting the West to remain a military and economic power is one contradiction; everybody pretending that international norms and organizations still matter is another.
There is also criticism of the West, primarily the US acting as global policemen. Well, 2025 is the year America resigned from that office. Just read the latest US National Security Strategy document.
A lot of people are disturbed by these trends, but I think 2025 is the start of period of rebalancing.
History is filled with contradictions, and these can persist, for a time, because the cost for sustaining them is manageable.
Think of them as having a debt. It’s always hanging over your head until you pay it off. They can be sustained for a time, until the situation changes and that is no longer possible.
Well, every country in the world has debts and 2025 marks the year where we all have to pay them off, one way or another. Some countries may be crushed by this rebalancing, while others may find a fresh start. Either way, 2025 marks a new period of dangers and opportunities./PN
