THERE IS a Chinese saying that translates as “Kill the Chicken to Scare the Monkey.” Basically, you scare the masses by making an example of a vulnerable or irritating target.
According to analysts now, the Philippines is the chicken, while the rest of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are the monkeys.
But China does not need to do any of that. ASEAN countries are generally ambivalent or supportive of China. This attitude comes from China’s trade, investment and technology with several Southeast Asian nations.
It’s true that while ASEAN countries also have their border disputes with the People’s Republic of China (PRC), they don’t regard them as a threat. In fact, according to some polls, Southeast Asian populations – not necessarily governments – are positive towards China.
At the same time, these Southeast Asian governments are also building up their military capabilities vis-a-vis China. Vietnam and Indonesia come to mind.
The lesson here is that although ASEAN member states may not consider the PRC a threat, they recognize that it has the power to harm their interests. And this view causes them to want to hedge their bets, preferring to manage Chinese presence than to present a united regional front.
What this means for the Philippines is that should a serious contingency happen with China, we are likely on our own and our own extra-regional allies.
Some of the ASEAN member states may even side with the PRC. After all, ASEAN member states have fought wars before. Remember Thailand and Cambodia’s short spat last year?
So we should consider the possibility of abandoning ASEAN, not formally mind you, but in the form of engagement and support.
There was a time when I had hoped ASEAN might form a united front against both the United States and China, but that was too much to hope for. ASEAN remains a fragmented club, and if the geopolitical structure of the world gets any more unstable, we should consider the possibility that we may have to abandon ASEAN./PN
