BY SAMMY JULIAN
DESPITE Japan’s assurances that it is ready and willing to provide defense equipment to the Philippines in the face of China’s assertiveness in the disputed South China Sea, it might actually take some time before Manila actually receives major military assistance from Tokyo.
This considering that Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s plan to expand the scope of his country’s armed forces faces heavy opposition from coalition partners. There is also no overwhelming public support for the plan to amend the Japanese constitution.
Prime Minister Abe needs to build a strong domestic constituency for a more assertive Japanese defense and regional policy first.
At the same time, Japan is still under criticism for not displaying a sustained effort to apologize and come clean on its historical aggression during World War II.
At the very least, the Abe administration will have to stop its visits to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, if not totally revise its expressed conservative position on the country’s historical crimes.
The Philippines should encourage Prime Minister Abe to do so, so that Japan gains greater regional acceptance as a “normal” Asian power with standard capabilities to project power across the Pacific.
The shrine, which honors Japan’s war dead along with Class-A war criminals, served as the spiritual backbone of Japan’s war effort. Many consider visiting the shrine a glorification of Japan’s past military aggression.
In the meantime, however, we should expect more diplomatic coordination between the Philippines and Japan, more discussions on increasing interoperability among our coast guard and naval forces, and more sustained Japanese commitment to humanitarian and disaster-related operations in the Philippines.
We cannot discount the fact that Japan has emerged as a potentially powerful counterbalance to China in light of lingering doubts over the extent of American military commitment to push back against the perceived Chinese territorial assertiveness across the Western Pacific.
Under the Abe administration, Japan has proactively sought to carve out a new regional security role for Tokyo, with the country ramping up its defense spending, relaxing arms exports restrictions, and pushing for the reinterpretation of the Japanese constitution.
However, the plan to expand the scope of Japan’s armed forces is facing stiff opposition. Thus, the Abe administration is astutely seeking to instead just re-interpret Article 9 of Japan’s pacifist constitution.
Under the proposed doctrine of collective self-defense, Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Forces are poised to play a more robust role in “stabilizing” sea lines of communication such as the West Philippine Sea.
Since the Philippines is Japan’s strategic partner, Tokyo could also use its new defense doctrine to provide more concrete assistance to the Philippines’ coast guard and naval forces.
The purpose is clear: To send a signal to China that rising tensions in the region is empowering its historical rival, Japan, to re-assert regional leadership and rally other countries against Beijing.
However, if Japan truly wants to play a leadership role in Asia, it should work as an “honest broker” among all parties to identify opportunities for de-escalation between China and its neighbors, particularly the Philippines and Japan.
Because what Japan is actually attempting is to build an anti-China coalition against the backdrop of the relative decline of the United States and a rising China.
Japan hopes to assemble an anti-China coalition by building military alliances with countries that have territorial disputes with China.
While it might sound rational from Japan’s perspective, this idea of an anti-China collation is dangerous for regional peace and stability and will ultimately hurt Japan’s national interests.
This strategy will only generate two very negative consequences for regional peace and stability in Asia.
First, by providing patrol ships and other advanced military equipment to countries like the Philippines and Vietnam, Japan is essentially encouraging these countries to initiate or escalate conflicts with China.
Vietnam and the Philippines might be emboldened by Japan’s help and miscalculate their chances of winning disputes with China. Indeed, given the huge gap between their military capabilities and China’s own military capabilities, any miscalculation might lead to grave mistakes that hurt Vietnam and the Philippines immensely.
Second, Japan’s strategy to build an anti-China coalition will essentially force China into a corner.
Cornering China is a very dangerous move as Beijing is still very much a defensive power mostly concerned with its own regime security and various pressing domestic problems.
The right strategy for Japan is to refrain from backing China into a corner.
Otherwise, Japan is simply adding fuel to the fire./PN
