MANILA – The Philippines is forecast to have a smaller balance of payments (BOP) surplus in 2020.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) attributed this to projected stronger imports growth on expectations that there will be no issues on the national budget.
BSP Department of Economic Research director Dennis Lapid, in a briefing Friday, said the BOP position is seen to post a $3 billion surplus next year, lower than the $4.8 billion projected for this year, noting the projections made by the central bank on November.
He said the problem faced by the government this year is not expected, referring to the delay in the national budget.
This year’s national budget was signed into law only on April, which hampered the government’s ability to finance its programs, particularly the infrastructure projects.
This affected the imports, which are seen to grow by only two percent this year. Next year, imports growth is forecast to be at eight percent.
Exports this year are seen to be at one percent this year and four percent next year. This, as the current account (CA) is seen to post a $8.4-billion deficit next year, higher than the projected $5.6 billion CA deficit.
Cash remittances are seen to grow by three percent both for this year and next year.
Under the financial account, it is seen to post a deficit of $9.8 billion in 2020, higher than the $8.9 billion this year.
With these projections, the gross international reserves is seen to reach $85 billion this year and $86 billion next year. (PNA)