ILOILO City – Western Visayas is experiencing a dramatic demographic shift.
The region’s total fertility rate (TFR) has plummeted to 1.57 children per woman — well below the replacement level of 2.1 — largely influenced by economic hardship, rising educational attainment, and changing social norms, the Commission on Population and Development (CPD) Region 6 reported.
In demography, replacement level refers to the average number of children a woman must have to maintain a stable population size over time. A rate of 2.1 children per woman is considered ideal to “replace” both parents, factoring in child mortality and the likelihood that some women may not have children.
The 2022 National Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) showed the region’s fertility rate has steadily declined over three decades — from 4.2 children per woman in 1993 to just 2.2 in 2022.
The current figure of 1.57%, reported by CPD-6, is one of the lowest in the country and includes areas such as Negros Occidental and Bacolod City (now part of the new Negros Island Region).
“The 2.1 replacement keeps your population at a healthy level or number. But, as you can see, the data are all below the replacement level. Given 10 years from now, this could drop even further — like no one is having kids anymore. Because of how busy they are, many women no longer want or choose to have children,” said Director Harold Alfred Marshall of CPD-6.
A breakdown of provincial TFRs based on Philippine Statistics Authority data shows that Antique, Iloilo City, and Capiz are among the lowest. All areas in the region are already below the 2.1 mark:
* Aklan – 1.79
* Antique – 1.46
* Capiz – 1.56
* Guimaras – 1.80
* Iloilo Province – 1.61
* Negros Occidental – 1.61
* Bacolod City – 1.61
* Iloilo City – 1.50
Marshall explained that although a comprehensive study is still forthcoming, anecdotal evidence points to economic difficulties as a significant factor.
“If you ask couples why the fertility rate is going down, most of them will say it’s because life is so difficult now — they cannot afford to have kids,” he said.
He added that higher education levels, especially among women, are also influencing reproductive decisions.
“According to international studies, the more educated the girl child or woman is, the more likely she is to delay her childbearing or marriage, or early marriage,” he noted. “For example, college graduates still want to enjoy their peace or a little bit of freedom — to hang out with friends or travel — because once they get married, they can’t do those things anymore.”
In what Marshall described as a form of “modern family planning,” he emphasized how macroeconomic conditions and lifestyle aspirations serve as deterrents to early childbearing.
“In this era of high inflation and economic hardship, along with greater access to education, these become very good contraceptives,” he said.
Marshall also pointed out how infrastructure and social development affect reproductive behavior.
“Developments — better roads, better bridges, electricity — these factors delay early sexual contact,” he said. “In the old days, when there was no electricity or education and infrastructure were lacking, fertility rates were high. There are studies that the more educated a person is, the harder for him or her to settle into early marriage.”
He warned, however, that extremely low fertility rates come with their own risks.
“If the government invests in education and better infrastructure, more classrooms, and highly skilled educators, fertility rates go down, including because of economic growth. But we should not overdo it. Look what is happening in South Korea, with a fertility rate of 0.6 — their urban centers like Seoul are booming, but rural areas are stagnant,” he cautioned.
Meanwhile, Roilo Vincent Laguna, CPD-6 Population Program Officer III, said long-standing government advocacy is also bearing fruit.
“This decline also — let us give credit somehow — has taken decades of responsible parenthood and family planning advocacy to become effective. There’s now mandatory pre-marriage orientation and counseling. The primary factor is the ‘high cost of raising children,’ which affects people’s decisions to bear a child,” he said.
CPD-6 also cited emerging lifestyle choices such as the “DINKs” (Dual Income, No Kids) concept and the rise of “fur parents” who prefer pets or plants over raising children as reflections of the generational shift in priorities.
“We are not saying you should stop having children, but let us keep it at a healthy level. We have to sustain the demographics of a certain area, because there may come a time when you go to another LGU and there are no more people,” Marshall emphasized. “We have the numbers — rising adolescent births, falling fertility rates.”
Despite the regional decline in fertility, CPD-6 warned of a contrasting concern: adolescent pregnancies. In 2023, the region recorded 4,875 adolescent births, accounting for 9.02% of total live births. Iloilo Province had the highest number at 2,228 cases, followed by Capiz with 930. Disturbingly, one case involved an 11-year-old girl from Iloilo Province./PN
