THERE WAS a time when I thought the Philippines, through the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), could stand up to outside powers.
Unfortunately, ASEAN remains a fragmented mess with member countries unable to reach a consensus, let alone a unified industrial and military policy.
The region remains divided, fragmented and open to either Chinese or United States influence, which ultimately means that the Philippines cannot pursue a (relatively) independent foreign policy under said organization.
Whatever foreign policy we do have is ultimately limited to two choices: The US or China. Anything else is wishful thinking. We have this situation because the Philippines is weak. We do not have the military capabilities to stand alone. We do not have the economy, the network of alliances nor the industrial capacity to pursue a truly independent path. ASEAN could have acted as that bulwark, but so far, it has been lacking.
We have some measure of sovereignty, but it is not a power that can be projected beyond our borders. Only more powerful countries have that, and because of that lack, we must ultimately face the fact that we are not fully independent.
And right now, we are practically a protectorate of the United States. Some may gnash their teeth at this by decrying US imperialism while others will cope by saying we are a US ally, not a protectorate. The same will likely be said if we’re “allied” with the People’s Republic of China.
But both miss the point. Our foreign policy choices are limited to China or the US because we don’t have the power to choose anything else. If we try to be “neutral”, one or both of them will make that choice for us.
Some may say that it shouldn’t be this way, but this is the way grand strategy works and has always worked. And so we must choose, and accept the consequences. We – and by this I mean the ordinary Filipino – can either face up to reality or risk being swallowed up by delusions, because the world is bifurcating and those who insist on remaining in the middle of the road will likely get run over./PN
