THE FACE of Western Visayas is quietly changing — and the shift is not just in population size, but in its very structure. According to the Commission on Population and Development (CPD) Region 6, the region’s fertility rate has now dropped below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. This signals a demographic tipping point that demands immediate and forward-looking action.
Replacement-level fertility is the benchmark at which a population can replace itself from one generation to the next, accounting for child mortality and the fact that not all women will bear children. Dropping below this level means that, without migration, the population will eventually shrink — and age.
In a region with a population of 7,954,723 based on the Philippine Statistics Authority’s 2020 Census, this decline in birth rates may appear insignificant at first glance. But the long-term implications are profound. If births continue to decline and migration slows, Western Visayas — like many aging societies — could face a reduced labor force, increased dependency ratios, and higher pressure on healthcare and social services.
Already, the data paints a revealing picture as reported by this paper over the weekend: while individuals aged 0–19 still comprise 25% of the population, that share is likely to decline in the coming decades. Meanwhile, the number of elderly will grow, shifting the balance of economic productivity and placing new burdens on public infrastructure and pension systems. Are we prepared for that future?
The situation becomes even more complex when coupled with the continuing issue of adolescent pregnancy — a problem that, paradoxically, persists despite the overall fertility decline. CPD-6 Director Harold Alfred Marshall warned that early pregnancies, especially among teenagers, undermine educational attainment and economic mobility, trapping young women in cycles of poverty and social vulnerability.
This dual trend — falling fertility on one end and teenage pregnancies on the other — presents a serious challenge for policymakers. It calls for nothing less than a complete rethinking of how we support families, children, and young adults. We need to create a society where raising children is not just a personal burden, but a shared public priority.
What does this mean for Western Visayas?
It means designing policies that help families afford to have and raise children — access to quality education, affordable housing, maternal healthcare, child support, and work-life balance initiatives. It means creating jobs that are not only available, but future-ready, to sustain productivity as the working-age population plateaus. It means preparing healthcare systems for the growing needs of the elderly, from geriatric care to long-term support services.
We cannot wait until the effects of a greying population become irreversible. The window for preparation is now — when we still have a strong working-age population and the fiscal space to invest in generational support.
The numbers have spoken. The question now is: are we listening?
