ILOILO City – The scholars behind a series of independent surveys have verified their findings and vouched for Atty. Joe III Espinosa’s imminent victory in the election for Iloilo City’s lone congressional district.
The graduate students are from some of the country’s top universities, including the Ateneo de Manila University, University of San Carlos and the University of the Philippines in Diliman, as well as the United Nations-linked University of Peace, based in San Jose, Costa Rica.
The scholars also expressed serious concerns over the survey apparently commissioned by the camp of Espinosa’s political opponent. To recap, the said survey was done by a commercial polling firm and reported in the local media within three days.
The scholars said it should take more than seven days to do a survey covering 600 respondents, verify the questionnaires and answers, transcribe and encode the results, assess the findings with the help of a qualified statistician, as well as write and publish the survey report.
“We did our survey from Feb. 28 to March 11, with about 1,000 questionnaires, and it took us more than a week to assess our findings,” said one of the masteral-degree students behind the independent survey. In contrast, the pollsters commissioned by the camp of Espinosa’s opponent did their survey on April 23, with their findings reported by the local media on April 26.
“This is almost next to impossible – unless the surveyors were members of The Avengers,” said the scholar who requested anonymity.
Based on the scholars’ independent survey, 84.6% of the 1,000 respondents from the city’s 180 barangays said they would vote for Espinosa, 6% would re-elect incumbent Rep. Julienne “Jam-jam” Baronda, 2.4% would support Atty. Pascual Espinosa, while 7% were undecided or failed to return the questionnaire.
The survey was done using multi-stage cluster sampling at the district level, and proportionate stratified sampling at the barangay level. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 5%, and a 95% level of confidence.
This was the third in a series of surveys by the group of graduate students – both Filipinos and foreigners – enrolled in some of the country’s most prestigious institutions of higher learning.
The students are taking up master’s degrees in political science, sociology and public management. The survey is part of their research case study focusing on current issues and problems in the governance and politics of the Philippines.
In the first survey, conducted in the week of Sept. 27 to Oct. 3, 2021, about 75% of respondents chose Espinosa as their congressman, compared with 15% for Baronda and 10% for Plaridel Nava, who subsequently announced he was running for city councilor. Nava has since thrown his party’s support behind Espinosa’s congressional candidacy.
The second survey was conducted on Oct. 12-16, 2021 and covered some 600 respondents from a cluster sampling of the city’s 180 barangays. According to the second survey, 82.5% of the city’s voters would pick Espinosa as their next congressman, compared with 8.3% for Baronda, 2.2% for other candidates, while 7% were undecided.
As in the first two surveys, the main concerns of the respondents in the third poll were jobs, food and financial aid, start-up loans for small and medium-scale enterprises, livelihood and welfare projects for the poor, and the continuity of Espinosa’s Pag-Ulikid Program of bringing public services direct to the barangays.
Transparency also remained a key issue, with 82% of the respondents agreeing that “the Iloilo City congressional representative should be transparent in all his or her official initiatives”.
The researchers cited three likely reasons for Baronda’s falling survey numbers. First is her apparent shifting political loyalties, followed by her reluctance to face her opponents – particularly her non-appearance in Comelec-backed media debates among congressional candidates – and her sketchy campaign platform.
A medical professional from Jaro who is supporting the presidential candidacy of Vice President Leni Robredo while backing Espinosa’s congressional bid, said: “Jam-jam doesn’t seem to have loyalty to her political party. She’s not very transparent about her political affiliations. She’s supposed to be with Mayor Jerry P. Treñas in supporting Leni Robredo, but she had been seen with [vice-presidential candidate] Sara Duterte and the people of [presidential bet] Bongbong Marcos. We don’t trust her.”
On the issue of public service, Espinosa scored positive qualitative feedback from most respondents, whose answers are translated here.
“For me, Atty. Joe III is already tested and has proven his capability – he has a legacy of looking after the poor and the lowly,” said a respondent from Barangay Calumpang, Molo district.
“Atty. Joe III has already shown his ability as a mayor. He was very accessible and very transparent. He has a strong track record of public service, from when he was a city councilor to when he won as vice mayor and became our mayor,” said a respondent from the City Proper district.
A former street vendor from La Ppaz said she was dismayed by Baronda’s apparent lack of concern.
“Jam-jam should have helped us sidewalk vendors resume our small businesses as we slowly emerged from the COVID-19 crisis to help with our daily needs,” she said.
A young voter from Molo who works for a business process outsourcing company said: “Jam-jam doesn’t seem to have a clear plan for the congressional district of Iloilo City, especially for her new term if she ever wins,” said the young voter.
“We have not really seen her in our barangay. She always seemed to be somewhere else,” said another respondent, a housewife from Lapuz.
This sentiment is shared by about 55% of the survey respondents who said they were not satisfied with the performance of Baronda, according to the findings of the scholars’ independent survey./PN
