RECENT events in Sri Lanka have shown that disasters can and will happen if a government is neglectful about its economic fundamentals.
The Philippines is not Sri Lanka and though I believe that there are and will be challenges, our economic situation will remain manageable.
Those responsible for running our economy are open about our situation. This encourages an articulate national conversation with healthy debates about economic policy.
When Benjamin E Diokno was governor of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, he was open about BSP’s policies.
Now that he has been appointed as Secretary of Finance, we can expect similarly open statements about our economic situation. It seems that the current administration will continue with an assertive ‘build build build’ policy. What we need are good-quality cost-benefit analyses so as to assess priorities.
Some potential projects have not yet come to fruition. For example, China has reportedly not responded to our proposal for the development of a railway system in Mindanao. I believe that China will not be a major partner in our infrastructure progress so long as there are issues about the South China Sea. If we are looking for overseas funding, it would seem that Japan is a better bet. Population issues may be relevant in that we have a vibrantly developing young population whereas Japan is aging and declining. I predict an increase in Filipino workers in Japan over the next few years.
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Now that the consequences of COVID-19 are not so severe, it would seem that there may be a substantial increase in tourism. The media sometimes talks about ‘revenge spending’ whereby those who were locked down and who now enjoy relatively free travel are spending more as a reaction to past curtailment of their movement.
If this concept is valid, then we are in a good position to receive more tourists in the next 12 months. Our climate is helpful. Those who live in cold countries envy the warmth we experience. I wonder if we could attract tourists from Vladivostok, for example, where winter temperatures are uncomfortably low in winter.
The introduction of well-constructed package holidays have great potential for the Philippine tourism industry. What we need are smooth interchanges between international and local travel.
Despite the ubiquitous ‘rosy glow’ advertising campaigns of the tourism industry, anecdotal evidence from experienced tourists are significant and influential. We must avoid long delays at airports, for example, as far as possible.
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Poverty reduction is a stated aim of the incoming government. To reduce poverty levels to 9 percent by 2028, however, is a challenging target.
If this is to be met, then we need rapid and successful development.
Let us hope this transpires!/PN
