People Powwow: Why I don’t believe in surveys

By HERBERT VEGO

WITH still two years to go before the next presidential election, Vice President Jejomar Binay is leaving no stone unturned to mind-condition the public into believing that he is already the leading presidential bet in 2016. As in the past, he banks on paid surveys with very few pre-chosen respondents to whip an artificial bandwagon.

It was not surprising at all that almost all newspapers in Manila yesterday orchestrated a front-page report screaming, “Binay tops presidential survey.” The make-believe survey by Pulse Asia – jokingly called “False Asia” – heralded his 40 percent rating in a group of 10 politicians. Probable administration contender Mar Roxas is on fifth place with a measly six percent. Sen. Grace Poe, who has no intention to run, is a distant second with 15 percent.

Poe would be a winner with 20 percent, however, for vice president.

As to how much Binay paid Pulse Asia and the “conniving” newspapers, just imagine him saying, “Secret…”

One recalls that barely two weeks ago, the same newspapers hailed a Pulse Asia “trust rating” survey heralding Binay and Senate President Franklin Drilon as “the country’s most trusted government officials” with 86 percent and 77 percent, respectively.

Reading between the lines, Binay seems interested in having either Drilon or Poe as his running mate in 2016.

But, of course, we have not forgotten that Binay had much earlier eyed Sen. Jinggoy Estrada, until the latter smelled baho in the P10-billion Napoles-PDAF scam.

Wait till the Social Weather Station (SWS) complements the Pulse Asia propaganda.

Poll surveys purveyed as facts may also be considered “betrayal of public trust.” I am sorry if I don’t share the majority opinion, but I am convinced they serve to influence the well-fed remnants of Garci – the dagdag-bawas manipulators — at the Commission on Elections (Comelec).

A presidential candidate allegedly needs an “armory” of P10 billion to win. One wonders how a politician could find that while treading the tuwid na daan.

Nobody doubts that the Binays have that much money now. He has been in power for 28 years already, since 1986 when he first bagged the mayorship of Makati, eventually passing the ball over to his wife and to his incumbent son.

How the pollsters knew that his hitherto unknown daughter Nancy would win for senator in 2013 has remained a mystery.

Of course, the pollsters’ intended bandwagon effect does not always play out. Remember? In the 2013 pre-election SWS and Pulse Asia senatorial surveys, Loren Legarda placed consistently first while Grace Poe, take note, hovered consistently 10th! Wonder of wonders, it was Poe who grabbed first place, way ahead of second placer Legarda.

Incidentally, shortly before the pro-Binay survey result unfolded in the media, Mar Roxas had projected an “arrogant” image by shouting at a Wack-Wack Golf Club employee who had tried to collect the “green fee” of a playing visitor from him.

If it’s true that the president of Wack-Wack is a political ally of Binay, Roxas should have exploited that issue as counter-propaganda rather than merely deny that the shouting incident had taken place.

Weeks ago, however, I heard the buzz that Binay – like a motionless lizard just waiting for the right time to snatch a prey – keeps an ace up his sleeve. He still expects to win in the election protest he has filed at the Senate Electoral Tribunal against Binay, who won against him for vice-president in 2010.

If as a result of that protest he suddenly occupies the VP seat, then he would probably edge out the discredited Binay in 2016.

I am not saying I am for Mar Roxas in 2016. The guy has not even played his political cards well enough to usher his home city of Roxas and home province of Capiz to prosperity.

Alas, there is still no politician in the horizon who looms as a third force with winning capacity./PN