ILOILO – Western Visayas may still be enjoying its “demographic dividend” – a period marked by a young and productive population – but experts warn the region’s falling fertility rate could trigger a looming “demographic winter” if not addressed with strong policies and investments.
Data from the Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (DEPDev) Region 6 show that the region’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has dropped to 1.57, well below the replacement level of 2.1. While this has short-term benefits such as easing pressure on schools and resources, the long-term risks include a shrinking workforce, an aging population, and a heavier strain on healthcare and social services.
“We are still on the dividend phase, hindi pa tayo sa demographic winter. If demographic winter kasi, wala na tayong makikitang masyadong tao sa labas,” said Ma. Leah Letrero, DEPDev-6 chief of the Development Research Division.
As of 2020, 63.8 percent of the Philippine population belonged to the working-age group (15 to 64 years old), with a median age of 25.3 years. In Western Visayas, there are 863,667 youth aged 15-24, or 18.30 percent of the regional population. The female population of reproductive age (15-49 years old) stands at 1.16 million.
“There are advantages and disadvantages of having a low fertility rate; there are pros and cons. There are short-to-medium term advantages, but long-term disadvantages,” said DEPDev regional director Engr. Arecio Casing Jr.
Casing stressed that quality education and forward-looking policies are crucial in preparing the region for an inevitable shift.
“Policies should be in place to mitigate the impacts of an aging population, wherein government services would now be focused on our seniors, versus what is happening now that we support the young. Our median age is around 25 years old, which is a good sign; we can still manage or use our dividend in terms of demographics,” he added.
DEPDev warned of possible consequences if current fertility trends persist, including economic slowdown, rising dependency ratios, labor shortages in key industries, and even depopulated communities in rural areas.
“The children of today will be the workforce of tomorrow. If we face a low fertility rate and a declining population, we may encounter significant challenges in the future. A smaller workforce can become a burden over time. However, we must also leverage education and current technologies, such as AI,” said Roxanne Yap, Supervising Economic Development Specialist of the Policy Formulation and Planning Division.
Yap added: “Investing in education, upskilling, and reskilling is essential. Even with a low population, a highly skilled and productive workforce can meet the needs of various industries. An aging population and a shrinking workforce can impact fiscal management. With fewer people paying taxes, there will be less funding available to support essential services for the aging population, which we need to provide assistance for. It’s crucial that we address these challenges proactively.”
DEPDev also underscored the role of the Commission on Population and Development (CPD) in monitoring fertility trends and supporting development planning. Policy recommendations include family incentives, childcare support, parental leave, eldercare services, and balanced migration strategies to counter the risks of a demographic winter.
Casing noted one potential benefit of a lower population: “The government will be able to provide for the schools with a smaller population. So ‘yung backlog natin sa classrooms, it is hope that the with better quality education, we can now, furnish our people with those qualities, and also, indi tayo maghabol sa ‘quantity’, instead of raising government spending a lot on the number, let us focus on the quality of education of these people. Those are one of the advantages of having a smaller population, with a lower fertility rate.”
Letrero, meanwhile, emphasized the need for both senior citizen support centers and early childhood interventions in every barangay.
“As we move toward a demographic winter, it’s essential to consider the need for daycare centers specifically for the elderly, which are already available in Region II,” she said./PN