LAST WEEK, I was watching videos by ColFinancial, a major Philippine stock broker, to get a sense of what their analysts have to say about the economic situation as we move into 2023.
The videos I watched were by Mark Matthews and April Tan. Tan works for ColFinancial, whereas Matthews, as far as I know, was an analyst invited to give his input.
In general, both analysts seem to believe that the economy will be good going forward into 2023, with certain caveats. Inflation is expected to be a concern going next year, but there are good signs in the Anglosphere’s interest rates as well as a weakening dollar, both of which are good for us.
So in general, the thing I got from the videos is that they are cautiously optimistic, and so am I.
Filipino companies seem to be doing well, and despite the high cost of inflation, projections for the Philippine economy is positive.
It may not feel like such for the average Filipino, who is suffering from inflation and higher costs of electricity and transportation, but overall, the country’s economy is rolling with the punches. As of the writing of this article, for example, the PSEi remains at 6,606.
Tan and Matthews, however, also warned of uncertainties and I would add that they are worse than they think.
First of all, the war in Ukraine is winding down, but I believe that won’t be the end. The US establishment and its European Union allies will only double down.
Here, in Asia, I wouldn’t be surprised if China tries something in the West Philippine Sea. It’s already making moves, and the only question is how much it plans to escalate.
There is also the increasing risk of a food and climate crisis in 2023, and I don’t think that will change.
All in all, the Philippines has a relatively resilient economy in a unstable world. So how the economy will fare next year comes down to how much stress it can withstand.
Personally, I think we will be relatively fine, but only as long as next year’s global headaches have little to no effects on the Southeast Asian region./PN
