THE IDEA of a “demographic winter” — a sustained decline in population that threatens economic stability and social cohesion — once seemed like a distant, cold-climate concern. But the latest data in Western Visayas shows that this phenomenon is beginning to take root even in our tropical region.
According to the Commission on Population and Development (CPD) as reported by this paper recently, the region’s total fertility rate (TFR) has dropped to 1.57 children per woman, well below the replacement level of 2.1 needed to maintain a stable population. This puts Western Visayas among the lowest in the country, with Antique (1.46), Iloilo City (1.50), and Capiz (1.56) reflecting the most dramatic declines. Even areas once considered rural and family-centric — like Iloilo Province (1.61) and Negros Occidental (1.61) — have now fallen under the replacement threshold.
These numbers must not be ignored or trivialized. As families shrink, so too will the workforce that drives regional productivity, supports the aging population, and sustains local economies. In just a couple of decades, if these trends continue unchecked, we may face the specter of low school enrollment, labor shortages, and a growing elderly population with fewer young people to support them. The consequences are not theoretical — we only need to look at countries like South Korea, now grappling with a fertility rate of 0.6, where urban hubs thrive while rural communities wither.
The CPD figures are warning signs. Our current development models remain largely blind to the demographic trajectory. Infrastructure planning, education investment, healthcare resource allocation, and even economic targets are still based on outdated assumptions of growing populations.
It is smarter to integrate population trends into regional and national development planning. Western Visayas must be bold in exploring responsive, forward-looking population management. Local government units, in coordination with the national government and agencies like CPD and the Department of Economy, Planning, and Development (formerly the National Economic and Development Authority), should consider crafting data-driven strategies that align social services, economic priorities, and infrastructure with actual population patterns. For instance, if fewer children are being born, resources can be reallocated to early childhood quality, aging services, or incentives for families who wish to have more children but lack the means. Yes, why not, right?
The demographic shift should also guide regional workforce planning, migration policies, and even the promotion of balanced urban-rural development. This is not about promoting childbirth for its own sake; it is recognizing that demographic health is fundamental to national resilience.
We must plan, not panic. But to do that, we must first acknowledge what the data is telling us: the demographic winter is no longer a distant possibility.
