AS OF THE writing of this article, Israel and Iran are in a state of war. How that will end, only time will tell.
What are its implications for the region? There are too many to list down. But one thing, in particular, is gnawing at the minds of many analysts: Will America get involved?
The Trump Administration has stated that the United States was not involved in the strike. It may have fed the Israeli intelligence but it was not directly involved.
That is the situation now, and given Trump’s supporters’ aversion to imperial entanglements, the present administration has an incentive to not get involved. But all that can change if an installation or an American service member is killed, while the war gets worse.
Now, here’s the thing. Iran has a better chance fighting Israel alone than Israel and America together. So unless their strategic leaders consume their own myth, they would not antagonize the Americans. That’s just suicidal.
The same is true for America. The MAGA (Make America Great Again) movement is weary of Middle East involvement for reasons already mentioned, and the only way that would happen is if an Iranian rocket kills American personnel.
If the US does get involve, it will be a swift attack. Trump is very unlikely to engage in nation-building to create democracy in the Middle East, the folly of Neocon administrations.
The danger, however, is that a surgical strike will lead to an Iranian retaliation, which in turn will lead to a spiraling crisis.
For now, we only have Israel striking at Iran. This suggests that they believe they could handle the Iranians alone, or force US forces to carry out strikes. This can change, however, if the war grinds to a stalemate or the Israelis fail to achieve their goals, which seems likely.
They may continue to beg the US for assistance, or as the more conspiracy-minded keep insisting, they will arrange for a situation where Iranians kill Americans.
Again, all this is just speculation, but it’s also the kind of speculation that is not too far from reality, especially in light of recent history and the follies of past American administrations./PN
