IN A NOT-to-recent speech in Davao City, President Duterte said about China: “China, for all of its, whatever, posturing there is, is also interested in oil,” and concluded that, “So it’s the resources. Eventually, it’s geopolitics.”
What the President was basically saying is that China’s presence in Southeast Asian waters is motivated by their need for some sweet, delicious black gold. Although this observation is true, it’s only part of the answer. Yes, oil import-dependent China is most likely looking for oil deposits in the Southeast Asian waters, but that’s not the only reason why the Chinese are fortifying these areas.
Consider the following data: $5.3 trillion in trade, 11 billion barrels of oil and almost 200 cubic feet of natural gas pass through the Southeast Asian waters, and the region plays an important role in both Southeast Asian as well as Northeast Asian economies. In fact, more than 60 percent of China’s maritime trade flows through these areas.
As the largest economy in Asia, China has a substantial interest in controlling Southeast Asian waters. It is a matter of economic security that they control them, and thus permits trade to continue on their own terms.
Thus, the biggest reason why China is fortifying Southeast Asian waters is because it is dependent on imports and exports, and not necessarily because they are looking for oil. The region in the South China / West Philippine Sea can easily be blockaded, which would effectively cripple the Chinese economy and put substantial domestic pressure on the Chinese government.
The Chinese know this.
However, despite the impressive and awe-inspiring fortifications made by the Chinese in Southeast Asian waters, such fortifications are ultimately irrelevant in a wartime scenario. Not only are their locations known, most of them will be the first to get targeted if hostilities do break out. Some analysts even speculate that the real purpose behind the fake islands in the South China / West Philippine Sea is for domestic consumption; that is to create an impression upon the Chinese people that the PRC has full control over Southeast Asian waters even though the truth is more complicated.
So to go back to President Duterte’s original comment, no, oil is not the only reason why China is obsessed with the South China Sea. It’s not even the biggest reason why they are there. The Chinese want to control Southeast Asian waters because it is a major trade route, and the PRC believes they need to control that trade route to secure their future both economically and politically. (jdr456@gmail.com/PN)
