An overheating planet

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BY EDGARDO J. ANGARA
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Monday, November 20, 2017
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THE WORLD’s carbon emissions could increase by two percent this year, according to a new three-part report from the Global Carbon Project (GCP) released at the recent United Nations Climate Change Conference (or COP 23) in Bonn, Germany. This means atmospheric CO₂ levels could go up to as high as 405.5 ppm (parts per million) — or some 5.5 points higher than the 400pm threshold scientists say hasn’t been exceeded in 800,000 years.

Such increase is alarming because it followed a three-year-long plateau (2014 to 2016), which earlier convinced some scientists that the world had already reached peak emissions — the point after which a downward trend would start. It didn’t happen.

An uptake in China’s energy demand from its industrial sector was identified as the most significant factor to the emissions increase.  Low rainfall throughout the year dampened China’s use of its installed hydropower capacity and, in turn, boosted its coal, oil, and gas consumption in 2017.

The US and the European Union (EU) managed to maintain their respective declines in CO₂ emissions, although in slower pace. According to the GCP report, high natural gas prices led to its lower use in the US and coincided with a slight uptake in coal consumption.  On the other hand, in the EU, increasing use of oil and gas assets eroded the gains the EU from massive decline in the bloc’s coal consumption in the past decade.

Several studies have calculated that for global temperatures to remain below the 1.5⁰C threshold, the world should only burn or emit 160 to 800 billion tons of CO₂.  The world today emits an annual average of 40 billion tons of CO₂. It means we have at least 4 years to reduce carbon emissions to net-zero levels, and prevent global catastrophe.

That’s why the GCP’s recent projections ought to be a huge cause of concern and a wake-up call to the world on the urgency of fighting climate change.  Even though the 2015 Paris Accord stands as a shining moment in human diplomacy and unity, much still needs to be done and in so little time — especially by the world’s top emitters.

The GCP report however is not all about doom and gloom. There were optimistic signs. Between 2007 and 2016, some 22 countries (the United States and 21 EU countries) experienced reductions in their carbon emissions while their respective economies continued to grow.

Rob Jackson, a Stanford Professor and one of the report’s co-authors, said in a recent interview with Popular Science: “The last three years were the only years that we had emissions drop as the economy grew.  Before that, the only times the emissions dropped were when the global economy dropped…Historically our economies were tied directly to our energy use, and that was tied directly to fossil fuel.” In short, the GCP report’s findings demonstrate that low-carbon economic growth can be achieved, and can possibly be replicated across the developing world.

Whether as a cause of concern or a source of hope, the GCP report should push our leaders to action.  (Email: angara.ed@gmail.com| Facebook & Twitter: @edangara)/PN
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