NAVAL blockades were a staple in many major wars in the past. The two World Wars as well as the Napoleonic wars had featured several blockades for example, and now, thanks to United States President Donald Trump, they may be coming back.
Blocking a country from seaborn trade not only harms its economy, it also harms international supply chains. In the time before globalization, this was just another tool of policy, one used by countries to pressure their enemies without putting “boots on the ground.” Over time, this mindset has faded, replaced by the notion that the supply chains are sacrosanct.
Now that the US has started using blockades, I think every country with a reasonably powerful navy will begin thinking about trying the same. Consider China for example. They are looking at US operations and are probably thinking about applying it onto Taiwan, possibly on Association of Southeast Asian Nations as well, if one of us does something that seriously offends them.
We, in the Philippines, are also familiar with blockades even if many of us have forgotten them. Throughout Spanish colonial history, the country had been blockaded by the Dutch, the British, the Americans, and later, during World War II, we got blockaded by the Japanese.
Our latest experience with them is with a localized/de-facto blockade by the Chinese in our disputed areas.
If naval blockades are making a comeback, then it follows that the sea is no longer as free and as open as we have come to believe decades ago. They are now conditional, and will depend on political and military power, which is to say that trade and investment are now dependent on politics and military power.
The ultimate implication, therefore, is that trade and investment is no longer guaranteed, and even precious supply chains can be targeted in times of war./PN
