CHINA ceded Hong Kong Island and the southern tip of Kowloon to the British in the treaties that ended two Opium Wars (1839-40 and 1858-60).
In 1898, what is now the remainder of Kowloon and the new territories were leased to Britain for 99 years.
In 1985, Britain and China signed a joint agreement outlining Hong Kong’s future after the expiry of the lease in 1997. The whole of Hong Kong would revert to Chinese sovereignty and become a “special administrative region.” China agreed to leave Hong Kong’s existing capitalist, legal and social systems intact for 50 years (until 2047).
Since, in 1985, Britain and China agreed as to the form of governance after 1997, it seemed reasonable that the intervening 12 years be used to support the 1985 agreement. For several years this happened. The aim was to create a “through train” which would enable the 1997 handover, as envisaged by the joint agreement, to take place smoothly.
However in 1995, the British administration saw fit to hold, for the first time, a fully democratic election for Hong Kong’s Legislative Council. Pro-democracy parties won overwhelmingly. Since China is not, and does not profess to be, democratic, this election may have been seen by China to prejudice the smooth transition.
In fact the composition of the Legislative Council since 1997 has become steadily more pro-Beijing culminating with this year’s decision to create legislation which could extradite Hong Kong citizens to face justice in China.
The extradition decision generated a massive demonstration in early June involving, reportedly, two million Hongkongers.
Carrie Lam, Hong Kong’s Chief Executive, quickly said that the proposed extradition legislation would be suspended indefinitely. This did not satisfy a minority of protesters who sought more concessions.
The majority of the allegedly two million original protesters seemed to have accepted Carrie Lam’s statement. They saw it as a win for their protest even though they would have liked to have seen an unconditional withdrawal of the proposed legislation (as opposed to its indefinite suspension).
A minority of protesters were not satisfied, however, which has led to the continuation of protest activity. These smaller protests have resulted in tear gas being used by the police on occasion.
Carrie Lam has spoken to make it clear that violent protests will result in violent responses.
Last week she made the telling point that continued protests will also result in adverse economic consequences. These are already being felt with a reduction in the number of tourists visiting Hong Kong.
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Hong Kong is not a self-contained island off the southern coast of China. Especially since the 1980s, Shenzhen, China, just north of Hong Kong, has developed tremendously. Originally, there was much garment manufacturing with the finished product being exported through the port of Hong Kong. Later, Shenzhen became a center of advanced technology. For example, the telecommunications giant Huawei has its headquarters in Shenzhen.
Shenzhen has developed infrastructure including an international airport. In June, Cebu Pacific initiated non-stop flights between Manila and Shenzhen.
Hence, although the economy of Hong Kong is intertwined with China, an economic recession created as a result of Hong Kong’s social unrest would not now have a disastrous effect on southern China.
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Hong Kong protesters should not overplay their hand. They got their win. Now is the time to get back to work and rebuild the economy.
But, at the time of writing, the prognosis is not promising./PN
