MANILA – The House of Representatives will likely back the articles of impeachment against Vice President Sara Duterte-Carpio, as the evidence presented during the proceedings has strengthened the case, even as she has emerged as a leading presidential contender, political analysts said.
However, political analysts said it remains to be seen whether the House can muster enough votes and support comparable to last year’s, when Duterte-Carpio was first impeached.
“The minimum threshold is achievable, but getting the same number as before may be challenging, given many factors such as a different House leadership and political realignments,” said Ederson Tapia, a political science professor at the University of Makati.
In 2025, lawmakers voted to impeach Duterte-Carpio after more than 200 congressmen signed a complaint that bypassed the committee process, a move her camp later challenged and won when the Supreme Court ruled that legislators violated a constitutional safeguard barring officials from facing more than one impeachment proceeding in a year.
Only 106 votes, or a third of the 318-member lower chamber, are needed to send the impeachment complaints to the Senate, which will sit as an impeachment court. If convicted, Duterte-Carpio could be removed from office and banned from public office for life.
Arjan Aguirre, an assistant professor of political science at the Ateneo de Manila University, said there may be lawmakers weighing the repercussions of supporting such a move against Duterte-Carpio, who has emerged as a popular contender in the next presidential election.
Duterte-Carpio, 47, has emerged as an early favorite for the 2028 polls, which President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. cannot join as he is constitutionally barred from seeking another term. It has raised the stakes in the proceedings, as Marcos has yet to anoint a successor, while he and Duterte-Carpio have been engaged in a political strife that has fractured what was once a formidable electoral alliance.
“Some are likely weighing the political risks of opposing a popular national figure against a growing body of evidence that gives the accusations greater weight,” Aguirre said. “It’s a difficult calculus.”
Tapia said the House leadership must consolidate support to more easily secure the votes needed to impeach Duterte-Carpio.
“The House tends to move once a certain level of political alignment is reached,” he said. “What we are seeing now is not just a question of counting votes, but of consolidation.”
“Members will step forward when they feel it is both politically viable and institutionally defensible to do so,” he added.
Support for impeaching Duterte-Carpio may be easier to gather after evidence was presented backing the accusations against her, according to Aguirre.
“The committee hearings — along with new witnesses and documentary evidence — have clarified the issues and strengthened the political narrative against her,” Aguirre said. “Her absence has also mattered; without a direct rebuttal, many claims have gone uncontested.”
Testimony from witnesses and financial records presented since early April have bolstered the accusations of wrongdoing against Duterte-Carpio, including sworn statements from a former campaign supporter who claimed that he served as her “bagman” who delivered bags of cash to several recipients as a way of returning favors.
The House justice committee also received reports from the Commission on Audit that flagged the way she had spent the funds as vice president and as education secretary, a post she held from 2022 to 2024.
The committee was also shown a report of bank transactions showing billions of pesos flowing through her accounts that did not match her annual declared wealth. (Kenneth Christiane Basilio © Philippine Daily Inquirer)
