ILOILO City – How would this southern city respond to a surge in the more transmissible Delta variant of the virus causing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)?
As part of the preparations, the city’s COVID team has formulated outbreak or surge scenarios – the bad, worse and the worst.
“These scenarios are based on the current data nga ara sa aton sa CESU (City Epidemiology and Surveillance Unit) a related researches nga makita naton sa internet,” said statistician Anthony Agudo, chief of the Research and Planning Section of the City Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office.
Under the “bad” scenario, there’s a presence of COVID-19 in the city. It is also recording 12,718 total cases or up to 3,000 cases monthly; has 1,514 active cases with 40 percent positivity rate; 376 deaths with 2.60 mortality rate; and up to 13.16 percent of the target population vaccinated, as of July 29, 2021.
“Amo ‘ni sia gakatabo sang nagliligad nga mga binulan,” Agudo noted.
For the “worse” scenario, there is 1:8 local transmission of Delta variant cases and the expected situation include up to 20,000 total cases; up to 6,000 cases monthly; up to 3,000 active cases with 20 percent positivity rate; 700 deaths with up to 5.0 mortality rate; up to 20 percent of the target population is vaccinated; and booster shots for frontliners.
What about the “worst” case scenario?
The city records clustering of local transmission of the Delta variant; up to 30,000 total cases; up to 10,000 cases monthly; up to 6,000 active cases with 40 percent positivity rate; 1,000 death with up to 7.05 percent mortality rate (higher compared to India’s 7.3); up to 30 percent of the target population; and booster shots needed to target 85 percent of the total population.
RESPONSE PLAN
First, for the quarantine facilities wherein the city has an existing hospital (St. Therese MTCC Hospital), eight schools, 10 hotels, one ambulance, and 994 beds, Agudo said the city needs four more schools to cater suspected Delta variant carriers, two more hotels, two additional ambulances, and 2,000 more beds when the “worse” and “worst” case scenarios happen.
Agudo added that the city also needs manpower that include 16 more doctors, 40 more nurses, 41 more nursing aides, six more drivers, six more first aiders, and eight more emergency medical technicians. This will entail the city P11.436-million fund.
“We need manpower… we need more money to accommodate sang amo ‘ni nga gap para sa sweldo sang mga frontliners,” said Agudo.
During the “worse” and “worst” case scenarios, Agudo said, the city will need 140 more hospital beds dedicated for COVID-19 patients, thus both public and private hospitals here have to increase their bed capacity.
Police assistance will also be needed, he added.
“Kon kinanglan ta man sila for law and order, the Iloilo City police is on standby mag-abot kita sa worst-case scenario,” said Agudo.
Meanwhile, Agudo said there’s an existing 500 crematorium allocation here but all are used already.
The city’s projected needs are at 1,000, thus the gap is 1,000 more crematorium allocation.
Agudo further noted that the city also needs a budget allocation of P3.5 million for the expected at least 65 tons of hazardous waste.
The city also needs 36 more contact tracers for faster contact tracing; 150,000 more testing kits; 20 more medical technologists; and most importantly, a genome sequencing laboratory.
For logistics, the projected needs include two more buses and four more patrol vehicles.
For all of these gaps to be filled in, the city will be needing a fund allocation amounting to P427, 577, 129./PN