WE WON’T call it by the same name but Imperialism will probably return. It will return because the egalitarian post-war consensus that asserted that large, powerful countries are equal to smaller, impoverished ones has failed. That failure comes from the fact that so-called authoritarian nations are exercising realpolitik, imposing their will on weaker nations to pursue their strategic goals.
Small nations don’t get to avoid this, nor can they cry out to some international body for redress. The only way for small countries to avoid the predations of a great power is to align with another great power, regional or global.
Furthermore, most small countries need capital investment, technology, markets for exports and labor destinations for their workers. They can only get these from a patron nations, and with the return of Great Power competition, those patrons will have enemies and rivals. For small, client nations, this means aligning themselves with the interest of their patrons/protectors.
Practically, what this means is the return of hierarchy to international politics. Some may argue, it had never gone away, but for a time, we have decided to pretend otherwise, believing that each and every country in the world is equal to the other. That era had peace, but it was ultimately unsustainable, because America and the West could not export its liberal values, and most of the world never wanted it anyway. So we return to the historical average of nations.
Up till 2025, countries could have done otherwise. Europe, for example, pursued strategic alignment with the U.S. while pursuing economic ties with China. As major nations escalate, and as they pursue autarky, the only option smaller countries have, particularly those reliant on global trade and finance, is to choose which side to align with. In our current scenario, Imperialism and Empire could returned, perhaps not explicitly, but it is likely to do so as a matter of necessity./PN
