THERE has been a lot of noise over the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA).
On the one hand, I agree with its proponents that it was the Chinese who drove us into this position, and they have no one to blame but their own provocations.
Further, I also agree that the military infrastructure and equipment being built through the EDCA agreement is a boon to the Philippines in the long term.
However, we should also remember that for all the talk of our sovereignty, and how our leaders are making decisions based on our best interest, our options are still limited, and our role in the region’s geopolitical chessboard remains small. Should the guns begin firing, we will very likely play a secondary role, while becoming a prime target for attacks.
Again, the thing about the EDCA is that it was one of the few options available to our leaders. But here’s what everyone is missing about the situation in our region.
Both the People’s Republic of China and the United States of American have their problems that could either escalate or de-escalate the situation. Both countries have demographic issues, political problems as well as economic woes. I don’t have time to expand on this but the gist of it is this. Should a war in the region break out, it will harm both sides and could cause widespread internal problems.
On the Chinese side, Xi Jin Ping needs nothing less than a complete victory. Anything less and it could harm his power. Remember what happened to Hu Jintao during the 20th National Congress, of how he was removed? I’m sure Xi is concerned that the same thing may happen to him.
For Americans, they have recruitment problems, and the public is becoming even more skeptical of their government, especially Donald Trump supporters. Further, most in the US want to bring back the troops – to stop policing the world and to start policing their borders instead. From their perspective, a war in Taiwan is not good for the US, despite their distance.
What does this have to do with the EDCA?
The war could result in a political, if not a military, pyrrhic victory for one side. A stalemate is also possible. Our leaders should remember this should the situation escalate, and they should be prepared to act on our best interests./PN
