Next economic power?

IN GLOBAL consulting firm PwC’s “The World in 2050: Will the Shift in Global Economic Power Continue?” report, the Philippines was named among eight newly emerging economies.We are projected to become one of the 32 largest economies in the next 35 years, joining a list of newly emerging and established economies helping to push the shift of economic power from advanced economies to emerging markets.

The report noted signs of sustained rapid growth in the long-term. The Top 10 fastest growing economies are all developing countries: seven are from South and Southeast Asia and three from Africa.

The global economic power shift away from the established advanced economies in North America, Western Europe and Japan will continue over the next 35 years despite a projected slowdown in Chinese growth after around 2020, it further stated.

China will become the largest economy by 2030, dislodging the United States, while India could challenge the US for second place by 2050. Indonesia, Mexico and Nigeria could push the United Kingdom and France out of the Top 10.

The Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia are also set to be notable risers in the period under review. In fact, in the global gross domestic product (GDP) ranking in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms, the paper said China has already overtaken the US in 2014. The Philippines is predicted to move up to 26th in 2030 and 20th place in 2050.

The Philippines, together with Vietnam, is regarded as the fast-rising economies in the global GDP rankings in the long-term, reflecting relatively high projected average growth rates of around 4.5 percent to 5.5 percent per annum over the period.

Although the report certainly brings good news to us Filipinos, we should take note that these projections assume that emerging markets will follow broadly growth-friendly policies. Let us remember that in practice, not all may do so and therefore, not all of these economies, including the Philippines, will fulfill the potential indicated by the PwC growth projections, although some could also exceed the projections if they can accelerate their investment rates and institutional reforms.

The key here is how the country is managed by its government. Otherwise, we could just as well be dreaming with our eyes wide open.


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