ILOILO — The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has raised an El Niño watch, warning of a likely weak to moderate dry spell developing between July and September that could trigger drought conditions in parts of the country.
El Niño is characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and equatorial Pacific, often resulting in prolonged dry conditions across many parts of the Philippines.
PAGASA-Iloilo weather forecaster Leonor Silvestre said the agency issued the alert following model forecasts indicating an increased probability of the weather phenomenon emerging in the coming months.
While the expected El Niño may only be weak to moderate, she said it could still bring below-normal rainfall, raising concerns over water supply, agriculture, and heat conditions.
An El Niño watch is issued when there is at least a 55 percent chance of the phenomenon developing within six months.
PAGASA Senior Weather Specialist Dr. Joseph Basconcillo clarified that the advisory is still a forecast and does not mean El Niño is already occurring.
“Sa mga susunod na buwan, lalo na June, July and August, meron ng 62 percent chance that El Niño is likely to emerge and will last at least until the end of 2026,” he said.
In its advisory, PAGASA warned that reduced rainfall may lead to dry spells, although the western section of the country could still experience above-normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon (habagat).
Meanwhile, PAGASA-Iloilo also reported danger-level heat index readings, underscoring the growing impact of the warm and dry season.
Silvestre said the highest heat index recorded so far this year reached 42 degrees Celsius at around 3 p.m. on March 1, followed by 41 degrees Celsius on March 27.
Heat index levels between 42°C and 51°C fall under the “danger” category, posing risks such as heat cramps, heat exhaustion, and heat stroke.
With the official onset of the warm and dry season following the end of the northeast monsoon, PAGASA urged the public to take precautions against extreme heat.
Silvestre advised limiting outdoor exposure during peak hours and taking protective measures.
“Limitahan lang ang pagwa sa balay or pagbulad sa init especially mga around 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. Then magsuksok lang kita sang lightweight, light colored clothing. Mag-inom kita sang madamo nga tubig or stay hydrated kita. And then magdala lang kita sang protection sa init. Magdala kita sang payong or kalo,” she added./PN
