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MANILA – Private sector economists scaled down their inflation forecasts for the year and 2019, results of a survey by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed on Friday.
“Results of the BSP’s survey of private sector economists for September 2017 showed that the mean inflation forecasts for 2017 and 2019 were lower relative to the results in June 2017,” BSP director for Economic Research Zeno Abenoja said during a briefing at the central bank headquarters in Manila City.
The mean inflation forecast for the year declined to 3.1 percent last month compared with 3.3 percent from a similar survey last June.
“Likewise, mean inflation forecast for 2019 declined to 3.4 percent in September from 3.5 percent in June,” Abenoja said.
Respondents cited a recovery in the global economy as a key downside risk to inflation, the central bank official noted.
“Nonetheless, analysts noted possible upside risks to inflation such as volatile global oil prices, weaker peso, initial implementation of the comprehensive tax reform program, government spending on infrastructure, rise in utility rates, robust consumer spending during the holiday season, and base effect,” he said.
The average inflation forecast for 2018 was unchanged at 3.4 percent.
“There was a 91 percent probability that average inflation for 2017 will settle between the 2-4 percent target range,” Abenoja said.
“For 2018, the respondents assigned an 85.7 percent probability that inflation will fall within the 2-4 percent target range,” he added.
The survey of private sector economists was conducted between September 6 and 28, with 29 respondents.
Central bank data showed that headline inflation in the third quarter was steady at 3.1 percent compared with 3.1 percent in the second quarter, but was faster compared with 2.0 percent a year earlier
“The third quarter inflation rate was unchanged as higher prices of items relating to transport were counterbalanced by downward adjustment in electricity and slower price increases in selected food items,” Abenoja said. (GMA News)
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