RECENTLY, I discussed China’s, and to a lesser extent other developed countries’, age demographics. This week, I want to discuss the Philippines’ own situation.
I’ve written about demographics before but it’s important to review it nonetheless, especially with regards to our own country.
According to 2017 estimates, the Philippines now has almost 110 million people, while its demographic fertility rate is around 2.7 children per woman, that is to say the average Filipina has around 2.7 children.
What this means basically is that we are only .3 children away from being below replacement level, and the country’s total population starts shrinking.
In demographics, countries need fertilities rates above the rate of 2.5 children per woman in order to be above replacement level. If it goes below that, the country begins aging and it will start facing certain issues, such as labor shortages, reduced economic output and increasing demand for social services by the elderly.
There’s only one problem, though. Countries which are below replacement fertility are usually already well developed. In the event that they’re not, the situation becomes bad. Not only does the country remain poor, it also suffers from reduced economic output due to having a declining workforce.
If the Philippines goes below fertility replacement level, this will happen to us. We won’t feel its effects immediately, of course, but it will come, and instead of having just a poor country, we will end up with a poor, aging country.
The less likely scenario is that we won’t end up going below fertility replacement before we reach developed economy status. In this scenario, the country continues to grow, while at the same time, its economy and social services grow with it. This will require the Philippines’ fertility rate to continue to be above 2.5 children per woman, until we are relatively wealthy as a country, an unlikely scenario.
At this point, our situation with regards to demographics is like a race. Will we become a developed country before our population ages, or will we become old before we become developed?
Looking at the numbers, I’m guessing the latter./PN
