WHEN I reviewed the Philippines’ total fertility rate I was surprised to find that it had fallen to 1.88. I had expected it to still be clinging to around 1.98 or 1.97. This was according to Worldometer’s projection for 2025.
It’s not as bad as other countries, but make no mistake, this will have far reaching consequences.
A declining population means less consumption and economic activity. This can be attenuated by higher productivity through tech and robotics but having a declining population ultimately means stagnation and an end to the growth experienced in the past.
For the Philippines though, it means more than just that. Our biggest export are other Filipinos, which means that a declining population can reduce the number of overseas Filipino workers we send out, not to mention strain the domestic labor market.
Further, we are still a relatively poor country, and a declining population can damage or even destroy the pension system. This is already a problem in developing countries, and it’s likely that we will have a much more difficult time with our pensions.
Taxation, social security and even political stability could get hit, and there’s no telling how demographics will affect our ability to attract FDI.
But there’s a silver lining to the Philippines’ demographic situation. First, declining fertility is not a new phenomenon. It’s been happening for decades, and we can learn from the success stories of other countries on how to fix or at least cope with the problem.
Second, our below fertility rate is very recent, and we a lot of time to prepare, and hopefully, we will use that time to prepare for what’s going to happen next.
Declining demographics is not a unique phenomenon. It is happening everywhere, and to almost all countries. No one knows what its full implications on the world will be, let alone on the Philippines, but I think it goes without saying that it will change our society in both subtle and not-so-subtle ways./PN
