Running on empty: Are we seeing the collapse of the jeepney economy?

LONG BEFORE dawn breaks over Iloilo, engines roar to life — not out of optimism, but necessity. For traditional jeepney drivers, each day begins with a silent calculation: how much will be earned, and how much will vanish straight into the fuel tank?

The answer, increasingly, is grim.

What we are witnessing is no longer a simple struggle brought about by rising fuel prices. Is it structural collapse — slow, grinding, and largely invisible — of a sector that has long been the backbone of public transport? The traditional jeepney economy is not just under pressure; it is being hollowed out from within.

Consider the experience of drivers plying the CPU–Ungka and Jaro Liko Tagbak routes. The math no longer adds up. From gross daily earnings that once translated into a modest but livable income, drivers now find that as much as half — or more — of what they earn is immediately swallowed by fuel costs alone. Add to this the daily boundary of P1,000, and what remains is a pittance.

On a good day, some bring home around P400 for a full day of labor that begins before sunrise and stretches into the late afternoon. Four hundred pesos to cover food, rent, school allowances, and every other basic necessity of a family’s survival. This is not income. This is endurance.

Some drivers describe a system where earnings feel “almost meaningless,” reduced to little more than a pass-through for fuel expenses. Under a 60-40 sharing scheme with jeepney operators, a portion is already diminished before fuel is even deducted. What remains is often barely enough to justify the effort.

This widening gap between gross earnings and actual take-home pay is at the heart of the problem. On paper, a driver may still be generating revenue. In reality, that revenue is increasingly illusory — absorbed by operational costs that continue to rise unchecked. It is a dangerous illusion, one that masks the true severity of the situation.

Because as long as jeepneys continue to run, as long as drivers continue to show up, the system appears functional. Commuters are transported. Routes remain active. The city moves. But beneath that surface is a workforce slowly being drained — financially, physically, and emotionally.

This is what makes the crisis particularly insidious. It does not erupt in dramatic collapse. It unfolds quietly, trip by trip, day by day, as margins shrink and burdens grow heavier. Drivers push through, not because the system works, but because stopping is not an option. To stop driving is to stop earning altogether — a risk far greater than operating at a loss.

Yet this endurance should not be mistaken for sustainability. A system that requires its workers to accept diminishing returns, to labor longer for less, is not resilient — it is failing.

Indeed, this is not merely a transport issue. It is an economic one. When a critical sector like public transportation begins to collapse, the effects ripple outward. Families suffer as incomes shrink. Education is compromised as allowances are cut. Small economies tied to daily earnings — food vendors, boarding houses, local markets — feel the strain. Over time, the system risks losing its workforce altogether, as driving ceases to be a viable livelihood. If left unaddressed, this invisible collapse will become an undeniable reality.

The question now is whether those in power will recognize the urgency — not when the engines stop, but while they are still running.

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