NOW THAT the US has officially claimed that it is no longer in Afghanistan, the situation has become more confusing than when the mess began.
For example, the US left behind a large number of military assets. Was it a blunder or did the Americans do it deliberately? If the latter, what’s their plan?
There are also warlords, some of which support the Taliban, and others opposed to them. It’s almost very likely that the latter are supported by American Intelligence. There are stories of fighting among these groups in some of the hinterlands of Afghanistan.
It’s also important to remember that Afghanistan has different ethnic groups and each has their own warlords. These include the Pashtun, the Nurastanis and the Hazaras. There are probably a few more I haven’t mentioned but these are the most important ones, I think, and just as in the past, these groups will likely fight amongst each other again.
And then there are the Chinese and the Russians. Is Afghanistan – now that it is no longer under American occupation – a good thing or bad thing for them?
On the one hand, the Chinese and Russians have made several moves to befriend the new Taliban government, but the situation is more complicated than advertised.
A Taliban-led Afghanistan will likely lead back to its pre-American situation, where the country is led by several warlords. In this scenario, the Taliban will just be among the stronger factions, and in that case, China and/or Russia’s relationship with the Taliban will not be enough to stabilize the country.
There’s also the possibility that in such a scenario, they will be drawn into the country for their own geopolitical interests, and they might end up where the US was in the past two decades.
Again, all this is just conjecture. Maybe the Taliban can secure complete state control for themselves. Maybe not.
Whatever happens, though, things will look interesting./PN
