The democratization of drone warfare

THE ALLEGED Yemeni drones and cruise missiles that attacked Saud Arabian oil facilities a little while ago alarmed many geopolitical commentators. Despite all odds, the attack had overcome Saudi Air and Military Assets, most of which were provided by the American Military-Industrial Complex. Such an attack did more than just undermine Saudi oil production, it had transformed the balance of military power in the Middle East.

According to reports, the attack included about 18 drones and seven cruise missiles, all of which were cheap, unsophisticated devices, most likely purchased from China, Russia or black market sources. And yet, despite their crude nature, these drones and discount cruise missiles managed to seriously damage oil production in the Middle East.

Now, consider that the Saudis have spent around $67 billion on military defense. Most of this budget is spent buying expensive air assets and sophisticated anti-air defense systems from the US. All that money and resources failed to detect, let alone stop, the drone attack that was launched earlier this month.

And this is a good thing; not for oil production or the Middle East, of course, but for political freedom and individual sovereignty.   

Why? Because low cost weapon systems that could stand up to, or at the very least counter, high cost weapons tend to change the way wars are fought. And make no mistake, drones are low cost weapons relatively speaking. Unlike fighter jets and ships, they cost only a few thousand to a hundred thousand dollars. A well-organized group or organization could buy a set and send it out against high value targets, which is what the Yemeni allegedly did.  

And this isn’t a new phenomenon either. Consider what muskets did to the Feudal order in Europe, or any place where they were employed to maximum effect. These new weapons changed the way wars were fought, and brought about new systems of government. A similar process is now taking place thanks to drones and weaponized AI technology. They are supplanting the industrialized warfare practiced during the 20th century with a new form of warfare, one that is less formalized, cheaper but also quite effective at taking out high value targets.

Certain historians have argued that the ‘democratization’ of weapons tended to expand human freedom, whereas its monopolization often leads to tyrannies. This process is taking place today. In the past, ordinary people were at the mercy of large state actors, most of whom could order air and artillery strikes at a moment’s notice. In the future, ordinary people could custom rig their very own suicide drone to fight back larger and better equipped enemies, and that’s only the beginning./PN

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