RECENTLY, Iran announced that they are teaming up with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – and other parties – to create a joint navy to patrol their region.
A quick search on Google had this to say: “Iranian Navy Commander Rear Admiral Shahram Irani has announced that Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Iraq, Pakistan, and India will form a new naval coalition in the northern Indian Ocean. The coalition will be formed under China’s support to enhance maritime security in the Persian Gulf.”
The obvious effect of this new naval alliance is that it renders US military presence in the region redundant as well as enhance greater regional autonomy.
However, Shahram Irani’s statement, though game-changing, is only that: A statement. It will take a lot of time, a lot of commitment, a lot of trust and a lot of resources to create a joint domestic navy in the Persian Gulf.
Personally, I don’t think this plan will be carried out in the next few years or even in this decade. Beyond that, though… I think it’s possible, and there are several reasons for this.
First, it’s possible that the US will simply abandon the Middle East. America is in the Middle East for political and security reasons, not energy. It can produce its own oil through fracking or by stabilizing Venezuela. It doesn’t need to stay in the Middle East to get oil, as in the past.
Add in political pressure to divert limited military assets elsewhere, and it’s likely that the US will just gradually leave. When that happens, the regional players may have no choice but to set up some kind of coalition.
The second reason is that the UAE may not have much cheap oil left. They may still have a lot of the stuff, but extracting it will become tougher and more expensive. For the UAE, this may be a game-changer, and they may be forced to change their diplomatic and international policies to meet these economic challenges. This transformation may lead to an alliance with previous enemies, like Iran.
Finally, there’s China. The Chinese will most likely welcome this new Iranian-UAE fleet for no other reason in that it removes US presence from their fuel source. Assuming the People’s Republic of China continues to strengthen its relationship with Middle Eastern countries, then who knows?
But a Middle East Naval Coalition may not necessarily be friendly to China. It’s just as likely that they’ll start fleecing the Chinese (and their other customers) for their oil. After all, they control it now.
The Middle Eastern Coalition Navy is just an idea for now, but it’s also the kind of idea that has very big implications./PN
