IT’S A WELL-KNOWN fact by now that the US is in the process of decoupling itself from China, both economically and politically.
What is less known is that China is doing the same, and for the same reason: Great Power Politics. This trend is a return to the historical average, which is anything but globalist.
For most of human history, countries traded within trading blocks. Sure, there were exceptions such as smugglers and black marketers for example, and there are always countries that don’t fall squarely into any specific group.
But in general, international free trade as known in the past few decades did not exist, and for good reason. You don’t trade with your enemies, nor do you reward rivals on the hope that they will adopt your way of life, a belief among free traders.
Thus, we have the phenomenon of trade blocks, which can be thought of as a semi-exclusive club for allied nations. Economics is historically the handmaiden of politics. Power decides who merchants trade with and who they ought to shun. Trade becomes harder, but better to have less economic well-being than risk strategic and geopolitical risks, risks like industrial espionage, for example, and regular espionage for another.
So it’s not likely that China or the US will patch their relationship. Indeed, they’re likely to intensify it for reasons mentioned earlier. There’s even talk of a New Cold War now.
In this new era, the Philippines is now firmly in the American side, if for no other reason than because of Chinese actions in the West Philippine Sea.
But we should understand that by being in the US sphere of influence, we may be forced to decouple with countries and regions that belong on the opposing faction. This means less economic activity, and more tension for overseas Filipino workers, but this is just the world we’re living in./PN
