THERE’S no doubt that the biggest issue discussed during the 33rd ASEAN Summit was the ASEAN-PRC draft for the Code of Conduct (CoC) over the South China Sea. The draft is still a little vague but it does make several references about dispute settlement and conflict prevention, which sounds good to people who are looking forward to China demilitarizing the area.
Oh, and the Philippines is apparently in charge of coordinating the future drafting of the CoC, which is a good thing from a PR perspective.
But the big question on most laypersons’ minds now is: ‘Will this Code of Conduct finally end the militarization of the South China Sea region?’
No, it will not. Not even close. China is never going to leave the South China Sea willingly, short of a complete social collapse scenario. You see, China needs to control the South China Sea to sustain trade with the rest of the world and to project power.
Over $5 trillion worth of goods pass through the South China Sea, and China is not about to relinquish control of all that trade value just to appease its neighbors. For the Chinese, the South China Sea is both a cage and a gate, depending on who’s in control, and the Chinese want to be in control.
From a geopolitical stand point, China must maintain a strong presence over the South China Sea. She can afford do so implicitly, without the use of disproportionate military assets, but one way or another the People’s Republic of China must control the region. If she cannot do that then China will not be able to project power, and that’s the end of her ambitions.
For centuries, the American and European powers have controlled the world’s sea lanes, and such control gave them power. China wants to control some of those sea lanes for herself, not only for reasons of power and ambition but also economic and political security.
This is why the CoC draft – for all its positive features – is not very important in the grand scheme of things. The ongoing problems over the South China Sea are not about ASEAN sovereignty and freedom of navigation. They’re about China’s long-term geopolitical interests.
Now, it’s important to point out that none of this is intended to disparage the CoC draft. As a relatively small country, the Philippines stands to benefit from the Code of Conduct draft, and from a short to medium term perspective, it’s useful to our interests, but the CoC cannot change geopolitical realities, nor can it keep China from flexing its military muscles./PN
