IF YOU LOOK at a map about fertility, you will see that the vast majority of countries outside of Africa are now below replacement; that is to say that the global population is shrinking.
But even Africa is also facing decelerating growth, and will likely join the rest of the world in this global trend sooner rather than later.
Shrinking demographics presents many problems, both social and economic, and to understand these problems, we must first understand why this global anti-natalist trend is happening in the first place.
This trend is ultimately rooted in modernity, or at least a certain portion, of it. It is caused by rising standards of living, urbanization, contraception and a whole lot of social phenomenon that pre-modern societies did not have to deal with.
Consider a farming family from a century ago. They didn’t have access to contraception, so they were more likely to have children whenever they had sex. They also lived in the rural regions, so they did not have to deal with the relatively high living costs of urban living.
Further, their children were seen as extra hands to work in the farm, not as future college students / liabilities. Thus, the farming family from the past lived simpler and less convenient lives but they could afford to have more children. Being fertile was affordable and it was easy.
Now, that’s not the case. A child represents years of tuition, doctor’s appointments and extra-curricular expenses. Unlike in the farm, where children can be seen as an asset, they are seen as long-term (high-risk) investment in an urban setting.
Add in the notion that you can only be a responsible parent if you reach a certain level of prosperity or status, and it’s no wonder why people are shying away from having children.
Government policies can’t change this. At best, they can slow it down. The only way to stop this trend is by dismantling modern life, and we all know what most people’s answers to that question will be.
Strangely though, modern life is declining, or at least changing, because of declining fertility, so in a sense this may be a self-correcting problem./PN
