BY FR. SHAY CULLEN
IF THE Ukraine war has taught us anything, it is that any future military conflict especially in the South China Sea, the West Philippine Sea or the Straits of Taiwan will be a war primarily fought with short- and long-range missiles, even hyper-sonic missiles, together with all internet systems being disrupted by cyber-warfare.
The growing tension in the Asia-Pacific region with the Philippines at the center makes it time for Filipinos to start to worry about possible war over Taiwan that would rain down Chinese missile strikes on any of the US bases, now or in the future, in the Batanes Islands, Cagayan, Basa Air Base or nearby Clark, Subic Bay and parts of Mindanao and Palawan.
Last January 31, 2023, The Manila Times reported as follows. “A four-star US Air Force general has warned of a conflict with China as early as 2025 — most likely over Taiwan — and urged his commanders to push their units to achieve maximum operational battle readiness this year. In an internal memorandum that first emerged on social media on Friday, and was later confirmed as genuine by the Pentagon, the head of the Air Mobility Command, Gen. Mike Minihan, said the main goal should be to deter “and, if required, defeat” China.
So, if there will be a major conflict here it will be over Taiwan and most certainly not over the Philippine atolls and sand banks taken and occupied by China from the Philippines and the few tons of fish stolen daily from Philippine waters.
Taiwan is a small, democratic independent state with a Taiwanese population of 24 million as of 2020, and 150,000 to 200,000 Filipinos living there. It is just 200 miles north of the Philippines. It is claimed by China as part of its sovereign territory. China has declared in recent years that it wants Taiwan back under Beijing’s communist control even with the use of force.
Shortly after the visit of US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the Island state in August 2020 in a show of US solidarity, China unleashed a mighty military show of force in protest with fly-bys and threats of invasion. Much of that may only be bluster but in fact Xi Jinping, the militant-minded leader in Beijing, is determined to get it back. Much like Putin, President Xi Jinping has grandiose imperialistic ambitions, fueled by a desire to go down in history as the leader that won back what China calls its rebel province.
According to some analysts, the missile war will likely be won by those with the most effective and accurate hyper-sonic missiles launched from the air or those forces with multiple, widely dispersed missile launch sites on land and ships that are too many to be attacked and overwhelmed simultaneously.
The recent agreements between the United States and the Philippine government of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. seem to be paving the way for this kind of strategy in the Philippines. There are already many US marine missile bases dispersed, or will be, throughout the strategically located Japanese Senkaku Islands 170 kilometers from Taiwan and 330 kilometers from China. The marines from Okinawa are being re-trained, re-armed and re-deployed in small fighting forces without massive tanks and heavy amour, much to the disgust of traditionalist retired military officers.
Instead they will be armed with a multiple missile capacity like the M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS), super effective in Ukraine and super accurate. The US will likely deploy them here anyway together with patriot anti-air missiles. The Philippines is fast becoming one huge US military base scattered into a dozen of its parts. (To be continued)/PN
