BOTH THE Russian-Ukrainian war and the coronavirus will almost likely cause a global food crisis. Let me explain.
The coronavirus over the past couple of years has caused food prices to jump up, partly because it has harmed food production, partly because it has harmed supply chains and partly because it has undermined the wider economic system, which has had an indirect effect on all industries.
Agriculture has recovered somewhat but it has not returned to pre-epidemic production capacity, and that explains the current high food prices all over the world.
But the coronavirus epidemic alone was not enough to create a food crisis. Enter the Russia-Ukraine war. Both Russia and Ukraine are two of the world’s top food producers, namely wheat.
Further, Russia produces petrochemicals, which is necessary for producing fertilizers. Ukraine can no longer export its food products because of the war, and the same holds true for Russia thanks to sanctions.
This has had tremendous results for the global food market. Several countries have already begun restricting certain food exports (Indonesia, Ukraine, Serbia, Hungary and Bulgaria are among them), and as the year continues, we can expect more countries to join them. This will, of course, drive up the cost of food, and that will mostly harm poor countries.
Poor countries have to spend more money for their food budgets per capita. So expect more instability in South America, Africa, South Asia, and of course, South East Asia.
I, think, even China is going to get hurt by this. So expect higher food prices in the months to come.
I’d like to say that this is all transitory, but the food crisis is only one of many types of crises that I expect will happen for the rest of the year (and decade). So let’s hope that the Philippines has what it takes to be food independent for the foreseeable future./PN
