LAST WEEK had been a rough week for United States President Donald Trump and the Republicans, and I would argue for American allies in Asia and the Middle East, regardless of how they might feel about the administration.
But the Democrats now control the US legislature, and I expect they will do everything in their power to turn Trump into a lame duck. The question is how competently they can do so.
It’s worth mentioning that Trump has largely ruled outside of legislature in the first half of his second presidency. Outside the Big Beautiful Bill, I can’t recall a major executive action that involved Congress or the Senate.
So for the rest of his presidency, I expect Trump to double down on executive orders, while restructuring the GOP for when his presidency ends. And he’s already begun doing that.
On the geopolitical front, the midterms showed the world that Americans have little tolerance for pain, and now, I expect many allies are scrambling to find an alternative to the American defense umbrella. Long-term, this means that they will be more willing to sell assets and be more ambivalent to American overtures, and this may put America further into the path of isolationism.
Trump was already retrenching from the globalist order, but now, I expect he will double down on it. And the Democrats can’t stop this, even with their latest victory.
High cost of living, foreign intervention and inflation were the reasons that Democrats won. They were also the reasons Trump won. What the American electorate are actually voting for is a massive restructuring of the American and global system, and that process requires, among other things, the end of globalized trade (and travel), transfer of funds from older generations to younger ones, and the destabilization of Europe and the Middle East, possibly Asia as well.
I doubt a Democrat US Senate and Congress can give these to their base any more than the Republicans. Trump tried and his attempts has had mixed results.
I expect that the remaining two years of Trump’s presidency will feature a lot of drama, perceptions of weakness throughout the world (real or imagined) and a lot of stonewalling, but nothing substantial.
Make no mistake. This midterm election is big, but it is just one part of a much larger story./PN
