BACK in 2016, I originally thought that the United States might return to isolationism under Donald Trump or at least, demilitarization.
That prediction had mixed results. Trump wanted US allies to pay more for their defense spending, and not rely on the US to bear most of the burden.
Western European countries had grudgingly agreed to these demands, while Japan, Poland and South Korea happily agreed in pumping up their defense spending.
The US remained the Hegemon, but its allies had also become stronger, and dare I say, a little bit more independent. In that sense, Trump had reduced America’s role as world police, though.
A second Trump Presidency can lead to the same policies, spurring US allies to grow their respective militaries. The effect is that although the US military will remain the largest and most powerful military, it is also relinquishing its status as global hegemon.
Instead, the US becomes a kind of first among equals, which in my opinion, is a better strategy when facing China and Russia.
Trump’s instincts are probably telling him that the US can no longer be the World Police, and the US populace probably believes the same thing. What this means is that America will still honor its alliance, but it will no longer engage in ideological crusades like the Global War on Terror.
This is basically Trump’s and his voters’ outlook. Fight only those wars that put America’s interests first. Any deviation from this outlook could drive a wedge between Trump and his supporters.
I have written about the possibility of the US becoming isolationist in the past. It may still happen in the future, but likely after Trump has left office. For now, what is happening is the US is signaling that it is tired of being the police/hegemon of the post-war order, and wants to go back to being another country with its own interest, with a reciprocal, non-ideological foreign policy.
Many countries, both friends and enemies, likely have concerns about this because an indifferent American empire means instability and political vacuums, and those are always unpredictable./PN
