GROWING up, I encountered several books, movies, documentaries, and articles touching on World War 3, and what it may look like.
In many cases, World War 3 is portrayed like World War 2, but with nukes and flashier gadgets. But looking at the geopolitical situation now, I think this is unlikely.
Consider for example a scenario where China invades Taiwan. To do it successfully, China will have to preemptively attack US bases and carrier strike groups all around the Pacific before launching their attack. Unless it can do that, the People’s Liberation Army are going to face hell in Taiwan.
At the same time, let’s say that Russia escalates its operations in Ukraine, and now the rest of Eastern Europe finds itself fighting Russians. Amid all this, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) calls for full mobilization, and WW3 starts.
A lot of people believe that such a scenario is possible. I am not one of them and that is because World War 3 will destroy the global economy faster than the combatants can end the war.
A failing economy in the US, Europe, China, East Asia and to an extent Russia will lead to social collapse or even existential threats. Deprived of power, food and employment, these countries will face a two-front war: The first from their own enemies and the latter from their own respective populations.
Russia invading Ukraine is enough to plunge many countries into the present economic downturn. Now, imagine it involving most of East Asia and Europe.
Countries can only fight wars when it is strong on the home front, and right now, China, the US and the European countries simply don’t have that. Russia’s Vladimir Putin has done what he can on that front before launching his attack, but even that was not enough.
Based on many figures, Russia’s economy is still suffering from sanctions, and a lot of Russians are leaving for greener pastures. If WW3 happens, no one will be safe, and all sides will suffer regardless of the military outcome.
Now, this is not to say that a nuclear holocaust is impossible. The nukes are there, and they can be used at any time. But a major war will likely lead to a social and economic collapse, not a nuclear holocaust./PN
