ACCORDING to OEC.world, “Japan’s year-by-year imports increased by 23.8%, mainly from China, Australia, and the United States. The top imports of Japan are crude petroleum, petroleum gas, integrated circuits, coal briquettes, and refined petroleum. In 2021, Japan was the world’s biggest importer of Other Prepared Meat, Processed Tobacco, Fuel Wood, Ethers, and Sulfates. Japan’s major export destinations were the United States, China, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand.”
A large chunk of those imports pass through South East Asia and the Taiwan Strait. Should conflict erupt in our region, those imports will cease and Japan will be facing an existential crisis. This is why in the event of any regional war, the Japanese are sure to enter it. They have no choice.
Even if America embraces a neo-isolationist stance, the Japanese are almost sure to fill in the vacuum and re-militarize. It’s been happening, but I foresee that it will accelerate in the future, regardless of what happens, because Japan’s future and even its very existence extend beyond its borders. It needs access to energy and it needs access to food, and I think it will do everything it has to defend those trade lanes.
Historically, Japan has championed autarky, but that is no longer possible. Japan has been too reliant on global trade and the American world order to go back to self-reliance. Unlike the U.S., though, which has the capacity to produce its own food and energy, an autarkic Japan is a beaten Japan.
What does this mean for the Philippines?
It means not being too reliant on America for military or political support. Fighting for Taiwan may be in the US empire’s interests, but less for the United States itself, which have little to no interest in foreign involvements. It is not existential for the U.S. to fight in Asia. It is, however, for Japan, and that aligns with our interests. They want safe and relatively open trade lane. So do we. So does South Korea. So does Taiwan. So does China.
The big issue is who gets to dominate the trade lanes. From everyone’s perspective, China is trying to do just that. So the only logical response for the other players is to gang up against the PRC.
For Japan, though, it’s more than just about logic. Like Taiwan, the situation in the Taiwan Strait will determine their countries’ well-being for decades./PN
