By ERWIN ‘AMBO’ DELILAN
LAST week, we’ve had another tense stand-off with Chinese vessels while resupplying the BRP Sierra Madre. It has become rather tedious at this point, but there is concern among ordinary Filipinos that one day, the Chinese may decide to escalate the situation and try something more lethal, in which case, we will be at war.
I disagree with this assessment. The notion that China would willingly open a war with the Philippines, and not Taiwan or an American base, is stupid. Despite the importance of our geopolitical position, China has to strike fast and strike hard in any kind of war scenario, because the longer the war lasts, the worse off they will be.
In a war, China will face Japan, Taiwan, America, Australia and the Philippines. NATO, South Korea and other Southeast Asian countries may also join in, though not guaranteed. China only has Russia as an ally, and they are bogged down in Ukraine. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has to achieve its objectives as quickly as possible. Getting bogged down means they will be fighting a war on several fronts.
So if China wants a war, it will start it with a massive attack on Taiwan, an American Carrier Group or on American bases. That will buy them the time they need to complete their objectives.
In contrast, attacking a few Filipino coast guard boats means that they will not have that time. Japan, Taiwan and the US will be on high alert the moment news hit social media. And even if such a situation does not escalate into war, China will end up in a worse position diplomatically all because of a few sunken Philippine Coast Guard vessels.
Of course, all this is based on the assumption that the war will start with a calculated pre-emptive strike. An attack by a rogue element or a foolish officer (on either side) is an entirely different matter, in which case, the PRC will be faced with two options: Lose face, or risk starting a war on a bad footing./PN
