NOT TOO long ago, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) removed General Zhang Youxia from its Central Military Commission (CMC).
For anyone following Chinese politics, Zhang was considered by many to be the main opposition to Xi Jinping’s power. His removal and the removal of almost everyone else in the CMC, therefore, means that Xi has uncontested rule over the Chinese armed forces.
There are three main scenarios to consider here.
The first scenario is that Xi is determined to invade Taiwan, and is convinced that he will win no matter the situation. Zhang, therefore, was not an experienced senior officer but a nuisance to be removed.
The second scenario is that Xi is desperate and sees a Taiwan invasion as his only means of shoring up his own powerbase. In this scenario, Zhang was an acceptable sacrifice for political survival.
The third scenario is that Xi no longer has any interest in outward expansion, and he eliminated Zhang and the other CMC members to solidify his power.
Given the opaque nature of Chinese politics, no one can be sure of any rumor, accusation or bit of information. What is certain is that the Chinese will have to restructure their military before they can try a major operation, and they are running out of time.
The Chinese economy is being sustained by exports, something that will not last if the Europeans decide to shut their markets with tariffs.
There is also China’s declining demographics, not to mention other East Asian countries rapidly beefing up their defenses.
Zhang’s purge may have been necessary for Xi’s power but it also cost them time. The question is whether they have enough left to satisfy Xi’s hegemonic goals.
No one can answer that. However, I feel that Xi and his inner circle feel embattled, perhaps desperate. His purges are a sign of that. For those of us here in the Philippines, it’s best to be prepared for surprises.
It’s worth mentioning that political purges by Leftist governments is nothing new, such purges may have weakened them temporarily, but they did not destroy them. Stalin purged the Red Army, for example, but it was still able to beat back Nazi Germany.
So Zhang’s removal may weaken the People’s Republic of China but who knows what emerges after that./PN
