THE Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) said the country’s balance of payments (BOP) surplus is expected to post a bigger surplus for both 2024 and 2025.
The BOP summarizes a country’s economic transactions with the rest of the world for a specific period.
The overall position can be in surplus, deficit or balance.
The BSP on Friday, January 3, said the BOP is expected to register a surplus of USD3.5 billion in 2024, higher than the USD2.3 billion earlier forecast.
For 2025, the BSP also revised upward the BOP surplus to USD2.1 billion from USD1.7 billion.
“The latest set of forecasts points to continued resilience of the country’s overall BOP position for 2024 and 2025, while showing a decelerating path relative to the 2023 outturn,” the central bank said.
The BSP expects the current account shortfall to widen to USD10.4 billion in 2024 from the earlier projection of USD6.8 billion.
Goods exports growth was lowered to 2 percent from the earlier 4 percent while the forecast for services exports was also slashed to 8 percent from 13 percent.
The growth projection for services imports however was revised upward to 19 percent from 13 percent.
The BSP said merchandise exports will likely deliver a more subdued performance in 2024 due to decline in exports of semiconductor products, copper metal, and bananas.
Travel receipts will likely grow by 15 percent in 2024, while BPO revenues growth is projected to expand by 5 percent while the projected cash remittances growth was retained at 3 percent.
The BSP also projects a higher net inflow of hot money to USD6.3 billion from USD4.2 billion, while the foreign direct investment (FDI) net inflow projection was revised downward to USD9.0 billion from USD10 billion.
For 2025, the BSP said the overall BOP is anticipated to remain in a surplus despite the projected widening of the current account to USD2.4 billion.
Goods exports will likely grow by 4 percent this year, while the forecast for goods imports growth was retained at 5 percent.
The projected growth for services exports was likewise retained at 10 percent while the projection for services imports growth was revised to 8 percent from 6 percent.
Travel receipts are projected to grow at a faster pace of 20 percent this year, while BPO revenues will likely increase by 6 percent.
Cash remittances, meanwhile, is projected to go up by 3 percent.
Net inflows of the FDI and hot money are forecast to reach USD10 billion and USD3.1 billion this year.
The BSP projected the GIR to reach USD109 billion in 2024 and USD110 billion this year, higher than the previous estimate of USD106 billion and USD107 billion, respectively. (PNA)
