BACK IN 2020 during his first administration, United States President Donald Trump announced the Abraham Accords in Washington. It was basically a set of agreements that sought to establish diplomatic normalization between Israel and most of the Gulf Countries.
The United Arab Emirates and Bahrain signed on to the deal but ultimately it went nowhere. Part of the reason is that Iran and others did not want Muslim countries to normalize relations with Israel, and activated their proxy networks to prevent that.
With the pacification of Iran, it is almost certain that Trump will try to revive the Abraham Accords. Many Muslims may still oppose the notion but without Iran, and with some Sunni countries now hostile to Iran, normalization is possible.
This is important for different interests. For the Gulf countries, a new Abraham Accords opens up new investment and economic diversification opportunities, things many Gulf countries have always wanted.
For the US, they get peace in the Middle East, economic support for reindustrialization, geopolitical support with its chief rivals as well as the possibility of the majority of US forces finally pulling out of the Middle East (and redirected to the Pacific).
And for Israel, it means that their state becomes more stable and secure.
However, a second Abraham Accords is not possible with an active Iran. Therefore, the erosion of its military and nuclear capabilities as well as the elimination of its threat to the Hormuz Strait is a prerequisite. This is by no means a certainty, but the odds will have certainly improved if the Iranian regime makes a deal favorable to Trump.
One thing is certain, though. Regardless of how negotiations will turn out, the Middle East will no longer be the same, one way or another./PN
